The Rhythm of Innovation

Every few decades, the world hits a crescendo of excitement. New technology arrives, reshapes our imagination and makes us believe the rules have changed. In the late 1990s, that technology was the internet. In 2025, it’s artificial intelligence (AI).

In both moments, the energy felt revolutionary. Investment poured in, ideas multiplied and ambition sprinted ahead of comprehension. And then, as the dot-com story reminds us, reality caught up.

The parallels are hard to miss. The dot-com boom and the current AI surge share the same rhythm: innovation leads to inflation before introspection. We fall in love with the promise before we understand the purpose.

The dot-com crash didn’t mark the end of the internet; it marked the end of illusions. What followed was a more grounded, sustainable phase — one where the technology became invisible and indispensable.

The same will happen with AI. But this time, the learning profession has a chance to get ahead of the curve.

Patterns That Never Quite Go Away

There’s a strange comfort in recognizing patterns. The dot-com era taught us that technological revolutions are more emotional than they are linear.

Back then, the signs were everywhere:

• Companies were valued by website traffic, not profit.
• Every business wanted a “.com” identity, whether or not it needed one.
• Infrastructure — servers, bandwidth and marketing dollars — scaled faster than clarity or capability.

Today’s AI market echoes those same instincts.

• Venture funding flows freely to ideas still searching for a viable business model.
• Every product description features the phrase “AI-powered.”
• We measure progress in prototypes and headlines, not outcomes.

The internet didn’t succeed because everyone was talking about it. It succeeded because it became useful. AI will follow the same path once the excitement cools and the value conversation begins.

The Bubble Within the Bubble: AI and Learning

The learning and development (L&D) function sits at a fascinating intersection of this cycle.

The promise of AI for L&D is extraordinary: adaptive learning paths, virtual coaches, generative content, instant translation, analytics that pinpoint skill gaps and more. The challenge is that many teams are still in pilot mode — testing technology before defining the business problem.

We’ve seen a flood of “AI in learning” initiatives that look impressive in demos but struggle to prove measurable outcomes. For example, courses are being generated faster, yet engagement and performance metrics remain largely unchanged.

There’s nothing wrong with exploration; it is vital. The risk is when exploration becomes an end in itself.

When L&D teams adopt AI because they can, not because they should, the result is noise without resonance.

Three Reflections From History

If we look at the dot-com era as a teacher, it leaves us with three enduring lessons, each one strikingly relevant to L&D leaders navigating AI today.

1. Technology needs translation.

The internet didn’t transform business overnight; it took leaders who could translate technology into strategy — people who saw how connectivity could reshape logistics, commerce and customer experience.

Similarly, AI in learning requires translators. L&D leaders who question not only what AI can do, but what it should do for learners and the business will be the ones who can turn technological possibility into performance outcomes.

2. Value follows usefulness, not novelty.

Many early internet companies disappeared because they offered novelty, not necessity. The ones that thrived (Amazon, Google, Salesforce) solved enduring problems.

AI will draw the same line. The winners in learning will be those who apply AI meaningfully: automating repetitive design work, enabling data-driven personalization or supporting human coaches with insights that make learning stick.

3. The human layer is irreplaceable.

When technology surges, we tend to underestimate the human element. Yet even in the most digital transformations, progress has always depended on trust, emotion and motivation.

L&D’s true advantage is in understanding how people learn, what drives behavior change and why context matters. AI may enhance delivery, but empathy remains the differentiator.

The Productivity Illusion

Every bubble thrives on a seductive metric. During the dot-com boom, it was website visits and “eyeballs.” In the AI age, it’s speed: how quickly content can be generated, how many modules can be scaled.

But faster doesn’t always mean better. The productivity illusion hides a deeper truth: efficiency without engagement is just motion.

When learning experiences multiply but comprehension stagnates, we’ve built scale without significance. The true measure of progress isn’t how fast we produce learning, but how deeply it transforms people.

What Will Survive When the Dust Settles

When the dot-com dust cleared, the survivors had one thing in common: focus. They had clear value propositions, sustainable economics and a human problem worth solving.

For AI in L&D, the same will hold true. The approaches most likely to endure will be those that:

• Enhance, not replace, human expertise: AI that supports design, analysis or delivery in partnership with human judgment.
• Live in the flow of work: Learning integrated into everyday tools, processes and decisions.
• Generate actionable insight: Analytics that help leaders see skill gaps, learning impact and future workforce needs — not just dashboards for the sake of data.
• Preserve empathy: Design that feels personal, contextual and emotionally intelligent, even when assisted by machines.

When the hype fades, what will remain are systems that make learning easier, smarter and more human.

A Pause for Perspective

Perhaps the most valuable takeaway from every technological cycle is humility.

The internet wasn’t wrong; we were just impatient. Similarly, AI isn’t overhyped but, right now, it’s over-interpreted.

Every innovation begins as a disruption and matures into an infrastructure. AI will undoubtedly reshape learning. But we play an important role in this inevitable change by balancing curiosity with caution, ambition with awareness and data with discernment.

The Emotionally Intelligent Lens

At EI, we’ve seen technology waves come and go — from Flash to virtual reality (VR) to AI. Each brought possibility and pressure, but the constant has always been the human desire to learn, connect and grow.

That’s why emotionally intelligent design will matter more than ever. AI can optimize processes but only humans can nurture potential. The role of L&D is to ensure learning stays anchored in meaning, empathy and measurable impact.

Because when this bubble cools, as it inevitably will, the leaders left standing will be those who learned from the last one — and built something enduring between the peaks of excitement and the valleys of reflection.

Closing Thought

Innovation has always been a mirror. It reflects not only how far technology has come, but how much we still have to learn about ourselves.

The dot-com era taught us that progress without purpose is fragile. The AI era will teach us whether we remembered the lesson.

And for L&D leaders, that reflection may be the most valuable learning of all.